Foss' Football Forecast, November 11-12,2006

I did pretty good in my Pac-10 picks last week winning 4 of 5. My only loss was putting my faith in the Washington State Cougars and they let me down as the Arizona Wildcats pulled the surprise upset in Pullman, 27-17. My overall Pac-10 record is now 44-16 for a 73.3 winning percentage. As you will see below, I am going out on a limb and picking some upsets this week in the Pac-10. The UCLA Bruins are in a must win situation and in the Rose Bowl I think they can derail the Orange Express of the Oregon State Beavers and end their four-game win streak. The Arizona State Sun Devils also are in a must win home game against the Cougars. WSU proved they could be beat at home last week and the other Arizona school will beat them with some home Southwest cooking. The Southern Cal Trojans (USC) proved they are beatable this season and the Oregon Ducks high powered spread offense will be tough to stop. The Trojans have never faced this Duck offense and I am picking the Ducks to upset USC at the Memorial Colesium in LA.

In my "other" college games last week I went 5-0 again, although Michigan and Ohio State were almost upset as the powerhouses must have been overlooking their weaker opponents. Why on earth was Michigan playing the Ball State Cardinals, who entered the game at 3-6, in the first place? I'm sure Ball State only agreed on it for the big paycheck, but instead of rolling over for the Wolverines only lost to Michigan in the Big House, 34-26. The Illinois Illini were only 2-7 when they took their shot at the #1 Buckeyes, and on the road anything can happen, but Ohio State held on to win by just a 17-10 margin. My predicted "margin of victory" is not an actual point spread, so even though they didn't win by as much as I expected, I still count it as a win since I picked the winner. My record in other games is now 37-3 for a 92.5 winning percentage.

It was the NFL that humbled me last week, as it was a tough week with many upsets. Unfortunately, I thought I was picking the easy games, which on paper looked like mismatches, but the games I picked turned out to be the upset specials and I went only 1-5 to drop my overall record to 28-17 for a 62.2 winning percentage. I guess home field advantage meant more than I thought as all four of my losses came in picking against the weaker home team. Who would've expected Michael Vick to have a bad game against the Detroit Lions, but two interceptions converted into touchdown by the Lions pretty much covered the 30-14 margin of victory. Just when I thought the Green Bay Packers were starting to turn it around and have an easy game in Buffalo, Brett Favre also had two interceptions, and the Packers had a total of four turnovers to none by the Bills as Buffalo won 24-10. In a game the Minnesota Vikings should've rolled in turned into the ugliest game of the week with the San Francisco 49ers actually winning a defensive duel, 9-3. Two costly fumbles cost the Vikings the game. When the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins meet in the classic cowboys versus Indians anything can happen, so I probably shouldn't have touched this game, but with the Redskins slumping on a three-game losing streak I didn't expect them to snap out of it against a better Cowboys team. Even the New York Giants had a hard time beating the 2-5 Houston Texans, but were able to hold on 14-10 for my only win last week.

The most interesting NFL game I picked this week is the Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans in the "Relocation Bowl." A few years ago this would've been the Cleveland Browns at the Houston Oilers. On that note, here are this weeks picks:
College Football, Saturday, November 11, 2006:
Pac-10 picks:
WASHINGTON by 21 over stanford (is this Stanford's worst team ever?)
california by 14 over ARIZONA
UCLA by 3 over oregon state
ARIZONA STATE by 3 over washington state
oregon by 3 over USC

Other college games:
KENTUCKY by 10 over vanderbilt
michigan by 14 over INDIANA
ohio state by 21 over NORTHWESTERN
BOSTON COL. by 21 over duke
texas by 14 over KANSAS STATE

NFL Sunday, November 12, 2006:
baltimore by 10 over TENNESSEE
INDIANAPOLIS by 14 over buffalo
ATLANTA by 14 over cleveland
JACKSONVILLE by 14 over houston
dallas by 10 over ARIZONA

Games on Saturday will be dedicated to all our valuable United States military veterans out there, of which I am one (USAF 1992-96). Have a great Veteran's Day men and women who wore the uniform and currently are defending our freedom. I'm sure the NFL will pay tribute on Sunday too. It's not often when Veteran's Day falls on a weekend.

NORTHWEST PRIDE: GO DUCKS & SEAHAWKS!