Foss' Football Forecast, December 31, 2006

The final day of 2006 also wraps up the final week of the NFL regular season. I had a tough week last week only going 4-6, ending my streak of four consecutive weeks with a winning record. Only Chicago, St. Louis, New Orleans and Baltimore came through for me. The biggest upset was the Houston Texans first ever win (in their 10th try) over the Indianapolis Colts on a last second field goal, 27-24. After a 1-8 start the young Arizona Cardinals are finally starting to play as a team and up to their potential, winning four of their last six, and upsetting the 49ers in San Francisco, 26-20, ending any chance of the 49ers making the playoffs. The 49ers loss allowed my Seattle Seahawks to finally clinch the NFC Western Division although they backed into it losing themselves to the red-hot San Diego Changers (nine-wins in a row) in Seattle, 20-17. This could finally be the Chargers year, but we'll get into playoff talk next week.

I knew I was stepping out on a ledge a bit picking the Bengals over the Broncos in Denver, but I felt Cincinnati was the better team and they led most of the game, but Denver held on in the snow in a close game, 24-23. Three other home teams failed me as Jacksonville lost to New England, 24-21, to almost eliminate the Jaguars from the playoffs; I wanted to pick Carolina over Atlanta, but Michael Vick playing at home seemed like a sure thing, but it turned into a defensive game with the Panthers prevailing, 10-3. Then on Christmas Day, the Cowboys didn't give the home fans any presents getting embarrassed by the Eagles, 23-7. My overall NFL record is now 57-38 for an even 60 winning-percentage.

Looking at this weeks games, I found the home team to be a strong pick in nine of my ten picks, some games were too close to call with team's needing a win to make the playoffs, so I tried to go with the safe games this week. Here are this week's picks:

NFL Sunday, New Year's Eve:
HOUSTON by 10 over cleveland
DALLAS by 14 over detroit
NEW YORK JETS by 14 over oakland
seattle by 7 over TAMPA BAY
PHILADELPHIA by 7 over atlanta
BALTIMORE by 14 over buffalo
INDIANAPOLIS by 10 over miami
SAN DIEGO by 14 over arizona
DENVER by 10 over san francisco
CHICAGO by 7 over green bay (possibly Brett Favre's final game)

Happy New Year all, may everyone have a safe, healthy and prosperous, 2007!

I hope everyone is enjoying the bowl games, we are finally getting to the major bowls, but are still a week away from the Championship Game as the Florida Gators still try to workout a plan to defeat the undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes.

Foss' Football Forecast, Dec. 24-25, 2006

I had a good week last week with my NFL picks going 7-3, my only three losses were the Tennessee Titans upset of the Jacksonville Jaguars, 24-17, the Washington Redskins upset of the Saints in New Orleans, 16-10, and the Pittsburgh Steelers surprisingly big win over the Panthers in Carolina, 37-3. My pick of the Baltimore Ravens over the Cleveland Browns by 10 was exact, 27-17. My NFL record overall is now 53-32 for 62.4 percent.

The Dallas Cowboys have the honor of playing in the national spotlight on both major U.S. Holidays: Thanksgiving and Christmas this season. I'm not so sure their families are happy about that.

Here are this weeks picks:
NFL Sunday, Christmas Eve, December 24, 2006:
chicago by 14 over DETROIT
indianapolis by 14 over HOUSTON
ST. LOUIS by 7 over washington
SAN FRANCISCO by 10 over arizona
cincinnati by 3 over DENVER
JACKSONVILLE by 3 over new england
new orleans by 3 over NEW YORK GIANTS
baltimore by 10 over PITTSBURGH
ATLANTA by 3 over carolina
Christmas Day, Monday, December 25, 2006:
DALLAS by 7 over philadelphia

Foss' Football Forecast College Bowls

With the Holidays just around the corner, it also means it's college bowl time again. The 32-bowl games kicks off Tuesday, December 19th in San Diego for the 2nd Annual Poinettia Bowl. I'm sure most people have not heard of this bowl, but with the weather nice in San Diego even in December, the city now hosts two bowl games, along with the more familiar Holiday Bowl on December 28th. There are three completely new bowl games this year with Albuquerque, New Mexico (New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 23), Birmingham, Alabama (Papa John's.com Bowl, Dec. 23) and Toronto, Ontario, Canada (International Bowl, Saturday, Jan. 6, 2007). The one in Canada will be the first bowl game played outside the United States since the 1937 Bacardi Bowl in Cuba. The GMAC Bowl in Mobile, Alabama isn't scheduled until Sunday, January 7, 2007 to fill the gap until Monday, January 8th BCS Championship Game in Glendale, Arizona when #2 Florida (12-1) will play #1 Ohio State (12-0) in the first bowl game at the new Arizona Cardinals Stadium. This is the first year the BCS has its own bowl game and is not rotated between the Rose, Fiesta, Sugar or Orange Bowl.

I remember when New Year's Day was the culmination of bowl season with the biggest games played on New Year's Day the most historic being the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, Fiesta Bowl in Tempe, Arizona, Orange Bowl in Miami, Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California and Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. It will be nice to see the Sugar Bowl return to the Super Dome in New Orleans this season after it was forced to play in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta due to Hurricane Katrina. The first bowl to be played this year in New Orleans is the apt named New Orleans Bowl on December 22nd.

I thought about breaking down all 32-bowl games, but that would take up a lot of space and you probably just want to see my picks. I did my research on Yahoo Sports. So I will recommend everyone see their excellent preview of each game with historic comments on the team's bowl history and tendencies. See http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/scoreboard.

I will comment on some of the college's that made it to bowl games and ended long droughts, or don't have much bowl experience. One of the best stories is the Rice Owls (7-5) who will be playing in their first bowl game in 45 years, the New Orleans Bowl and it should be an interesting matchup against the University of Troy Trojans, also 7-5, who will be in only their second bowl game since moving up to Division 1A football in 2002. Middle Tennessee State (7-5) Blue Raiders are in their first bowl game, the Motor City Bowl in Detroit, since moving up to Division 1A in 1999. The University of South Florida Bulls (8-4) are playing in their second consecutive bowl game, the inaugural Papa John's.com Bowl in Birmingham on December 23rd, after not making one in their first four seasons in Division 1A. The University of Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) proved they are not just a basketball school anymore as Coach Rich Brooks led the football team to its first bowl game, the Music City Bowl, Dec. 29th, since 1999. Oregon State (9-4) is playing in its first Sun Bowl in El Paso and finished the regular season ranked 24th in the nation.

My Oregon Ducks (7-5) will get to spend the Holidays at home as they are in the second bowl game the Las Vegas Bowl on Thursday, December 21st. It should be an interesting matchup against #19 Brigham Young University (BYU 10-2), the former school of Duck offensive coordinator Gary Crowton, who coached BYU from 2001-04. BYU has won nine-games in a row, but their only impressive win was against #25 Texas Christian (TCU). The Cougars 10-2 record should not intimidate the Ducks and I will go against the spread and predict the Ducks will win by at least three points.

Well onto the picks:

Tuesday, December 19, 2006
1. Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego
#25 TCU (10-2) by 14 over Northern Illinois (7-5)

Thursday, December 21, 2006
2. Las Vegas Bowl in Nevada
Oregon (7-5) by 3 over #19 BYU (10-2)

Friday, December 22, 2006
3. New Orleans Bowl in Louisiana
Rice (7-5) by 7 over Troy (7-5)

Saturday, December 23, 2006
4. Papa John's.com Bowl in Birmingham, AL (inaugural)
South Florida (8-4) by 7 over East Carolina (7-5)

5. New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque (inaugural)
San Jose State (8-4) by 3 over New Mexico (6-6)

6. Armed Forces Bowl (inaugural, formerly Fort Worth Bowl)
in Fort Worth, Texas
Utah (7-5) by 3 over Tulsa (8-4)

Sunday, December 24, 2006
7. Hawaii Bowl in Hololulu
Hawaii (10-3) by 10 over Arizona State (7-5)

Tuesday, December 26, 2006
8. Motor City Bowl in Detroit
Central Michigan (9-4) by 10 over Middle Tennessee State (7-5)

Wednesday, December 27, 2006
9. Emerald Bowl in San Francisco
UCLA (7-5) by 3 over Florida State (6-6)

Thursday, December 28, 2006
10. Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana
Alabama (6-6) by 3 over Oklahoma State (6-6)

11. Texas Bowl (inaugural, formerly Houston Bowl)
in Houston
#16 Rutgers (10-2) by 10 over Kansas State (7-5)

12. Holiday Bowl in San Diego
#20 California (9-3) by 7 over #21 Texas A&M (9-3)

Friday, December 29, 2006
13. Music City Bowl in Nashville
Kentucky (7-5) by 3 over Clemson (8-4)

14. Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas
#24 Oregon State (9-4) by 3 over Missouri (8-4)

15. Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tennessee
South Carolina (7-5) by 7 over Houston (10-3)

16. Insight Bowl in Tempe, Arizona
Texas Tech (7-5) by 10 over Minnesota (6-6)

17. Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando
Purdue (8-5) by 3 over Maryland (8-4)

Saturday, December 30, 2006
18. Meineke Bowl in Charlotte, North Carolina
#23 Boston College (9-3) by 3 over Navy (9-3)

19. Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, Texas
#18 Texas (9-3) by 10 over Iowa (6-6)

20. Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta
#14 Virginia Tech (10-2) by 3 over Georgia

Sunday, December 31, 2006
21. MPC Computers Bowl in Boise, Idaho
Nevada (8-4) by 3 over Miami, Fla. (6-6)

Monday, January 1, 2007
22. Outback Bowl in Tampa, Fla.
#17 Tennessee (9-3) by 7 over Penn State (8-4)

23. Cotton Bowl in Dallas
#10 Auburn (10-2) by 7 over #22 Nebraska (9-4)

24. Capital One Bowl in Orlando, Fla.
#6 Wisconsin (11-1) by 3 over #12 Arkansas (10-3)

25. Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, Fla.
#13 West Virginia (10-2) by 10 over Georgia Tech (9-4)

26. Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Ca.
#8 USC (10-2) by 7 over #3 Michigan (11-1)

27. Fiesta Bowl in Tempe, Arizona
#9 Boise State (12-0) by 3 over #7 Oklahoma (11-2)

Tuesday, January 2, 2007
28. Orange Bowl in Miami
#5 Louisville (11-1) by 10 over #15 Wake Forest (11-2)

Wednesday, January 3, 2007
29. Sugar Bowl in New Orleans
#4 Louisiana State (10-2) by 7 over #11 Notre Dame (10-2)

Saturday, January 6, 2007
30. International Bowl (inaugural in Toronto, ON, Canada)
Cincinnati (7-5) by 3 over Western Michigan (8-4)

Sunday, January 7, 2007
31. GMAC Bowl in Mobile, Alabama
Southern Mississippi (8-5) by 7 over Ohio (9-4)

Monday, January 8, 2007
32. BCS Championship Game
#1 Ohio State (12-0) by 10 over #2 Florida (12-1)

Well there you have it, enjoy all the Holiday bowl games, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Peace on Earth, good will to all humanity.

Let's not forget our troops overseas who won't be able to be home for the Holidays, but can get a piece of Americana through the bowl games!

Foss' Football Forecast, Dec. 17, 2006

In my first week of just picking NFL games, and increasing my picks to 10 games, I went 6-4 for 60 percent for the weekend due to a couple upsets. The biggest was the Arizona Cardinals upset of the Seattle Seahawks 27-21 preventing the Seahawks from clinching the NFC West. The Cardinals capitalized on Seahawk turnovers. I was glad to see the Miami Dolphins upset the New England Patriots, but was not bold enough to predict it and was impressed with the Dolphins defense in a 21-0 shutout. It was the first time the Patriots had been shutout since September 7, 2003 (a 31-0 loss to Buffalo), and the first time the Dolphins had shutout the Patriots since their perfect season in 1972. I figured the San Francisco 49ers could beat the slumping Green Bay Packers at home, but the Packers rolled into the SF Bay area and ended their three-game losing streak, 30-19, and extended the 49ers losing streak to three-games. The New York Jets had been playing pretty well with a two-game win streak and I figured they could beat Buffalo in the Meadowlands, but the Bills grounded the Jets, 31-13. In my six wins, Atlanta, Minnesota, Cincinnati, San Diego, Tennessee and Chicago came through. My overall NFL picks record is now 46-29 for a 61.3 winning percentage.

The college football bowl season starts this coming Tuesday, December 19th with the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego, one of two bowl games in San Diego. I am still working on my bowl game picks and I will have all 32 posted on Monday. Today I will just post my NFL picks for this Sunday, December 17, 2006. So here is this weekends Foss' Football Forecast.

NFL Sunday:
BALTIMORE by 10 over cleveland
GREEN BAY by 14 over detroit
NEW ENGLAND by 10 over houston
jacksonville by 7 over TENNESSEE
CHICAGO by 14 over tampa bay
NEW ORLEANS by 10 over washington
denver by 3 over ARIZONA
CAROLINA by 10 over pittsburgh
st. louis by 10 over OAKLAND
SAN DIEGO by 10 over kansas city

Enjoy the games!

Foss' Football Forecast, Dec. 10-11, 2006

In the final weekend of regular season college football games, I went only 1-2 on my final three Pac-10 games with only California's win over Stanford 26-17 being a given, although the game was closer than expected, but most rivalry games are.

The biggest upset of the weekend was the UCLA Bruins win over the #2 Southern California (USC) Trojans in an unexpected defensive duel, 13-9, knocking the Trojans out of the National Championship game. The Bruins (7-5) achieved their goal and earned a bowl invitation to the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco against Florida State, which should be a good matchup. The Trojans (10-2) as Pac-10 Champs, slipped to #5 in the BCS rankings, accepted their bid to the Rose Bowl for a traditional match-up against a Big-10 team the #3 Michigan Wolverines (11-1) in a game that could be national championship caliber. The Wolverines missed out on a rematch with Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game due to the Florida Gators 38-28 win over Arkansas in the SEC Championship Game. #2 Florida (11-1) earned the right to play #1 Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game, January 8th. To correct an error from last week, the Championship game is being played in the same city as the Fiesta Bowl, but it is officially the BCS Championship Game this season, it isn't being rotated between the four biggest bowls anymore. The Fiesta Bowl has its own match up of #8 Boise State (12-0) earning their first BCS Bowl bid in an interesting matchup against #10 Oklahoma (11-2). Even though the Boise State Broncos were undefeated, their schedule wasn't tough enough to earn them a shot at the BCS Championship as they only ranked eighth in the BCS standings, which is their highest ranking in school history. It's nice to see them finally getting some national recognition. My other Pac-10 loss came as Oregon State hung on to win another close, wild one this time in Hawaii, 35-32. The Beavers didn't have to win after already clinching their 1st invitation to the Sun Bowl in El Paso with an interesting match-up against the Missouri Tigers (8-4). The Beavers (9-4) even found themselves ranked 22nd in the most recent BCS standings. Cal's win gave me my 50th Pac-10 win as I finished the season at 50-26 for a respectable 65.8 winning percentage in a tough league, where anything can happen and did this season.

In my "other games" last week I went 5-0 as the impressive Navy Midshipmen (9-3) earned a trip to the Meineke Bowl in Charlotte, North Carolina and the Commander and Chief Cup with a win over their arch rival Army Knights 26-14. The #6 Louisville Cardinals (11-1) closed out an impressive regular season with a big 47-17 win over Connecticut and earned a trip to the Orange Bowl against the #14 Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Texas Christian (TCU, 10-2) completed another successful regular season with a big 38-14 win over the slumping Air Force Academy that ended the season on a four game losing streak and a disappointing 4-8 season, after a 3-2 start. The TCU Horned Frogs accepted a big to the Poinsettia Bowl the first bowl game of the bowl season, December 19th in San Diego against the Northern Illinois Huskies (7-5). I will post my picks for this and all bowl games next week. Along with Florida's win, as mentioned earlier, my fifth "other games" win came with #13 West Virginia Mountaineers (10-2) finishing a successful regular season with a wild win over #16 Rutgers (10-2). 41-39 in triple overtime! It was a playoff caliber performance. West Virginia accepted a bid to the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, Florida against Georgia Tech (9-4). Rutgers successful 10-2 season earned head coach Greg Schiano the Big East Football Coach of the Year Award. The Scarlet Knights also will be bowling in the inaugural Texas Bowl in Houston, formerly the Houston Bowl, against the Kansas State Wildcats (7-5). My final "other games" record was an impressive 52-8 for a 86.7 winning percentage.

I had a pretty good NFL week going 3-2 as the New Orleans Saints easily handled the San Francisco 49ers, 34-10, the Chicago Bears beat the Minnesota Vikings 23-13 and Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-3. My two losses were both upsets with the biggest being the Tennessee Titans surprise win over the Indianapolis Colts, 20-17, handing the Colts only their second loss. The Arizona Cardinals, playing in their former home town, won only their third game of the season upsetting the St. Louis Rams 34-20 in another "Relocation Bowl" game. A few seasons ago this would've been the Los Angeles Rams visiting the St. Louis Cardinals. My NFL record is now 40-25 for a 61.5 winning percentage. This weeks picks will just be NFL games.

One final college note, I need to comment on Stanford's record breaking season, although they weren't records to be proud of. The Cardinal finished 1-11 with the most losses in one season in school history and their worst record since an 0-10 season in 1960. This was their worst season in my lifetime. Not surprisingly Coach Walt Harris was fired after going 6-17 the past two seasons under his inept leadership. By Harris lasting just two seasons, it is the shortest tenure of a Stanford football coach in the last 27 years. His most daunting distinguish was the proud Pac-10 program losing to Division 1-AA University of California at Davis last season. Stanford still hasn't won in their sparkling new stadium going 0-5 this season, but someone found a way to win 20-3 at Washington in one of the toughest venues in the league. It snapped Stanford's team record losing streak at 11-games, second longest in the nation. Stanford caught the Huskies at just the right time as the loss was the sixth in a row for Washington, but it snapped its losing streak the following week against rival Washington State in the Apple Cup and knocking the Cougars out of a bowl game, so the Huskies achieved their goal.

On to the picks. Here is this weeks Foss' Football Forecast:

NFL Sunday, December 10:
atlanta by 14 over TAMPA BAY
minnesota by 7 over DETOIT
CINCINNATI by 14 over oakland
seattle by 14 over ARIZONA
NEW YORK JETS by 10 over buffalo
SAN DIEGO by 10 over denver
new england by 10 over MIAMI
SAN FRANCISCO by 7 over green bay
tennessee by 7 over HOUSTON

Monday, December 11:
chicago by 10 over ST. LOUIS

Bonus pick, my Heismann Trophy pick is: Ohio State University Quarterback Troy Smith who has led the Buckeyes to an undefeated season and a shot at their second national championship in four seasons.

Enjoy the games!

Foss' Football Forecast, Dec. 2-3, 2006

This is the final week of the regular college football season and there are some interesting match-ups as some conferences are having championship games. Last week in Pac-10 picks I only went 1-2 as the Ducks made a valiant come from behind and even held a 28-27 lead on a gutsy two-point conversion, but the Beavers got the winning field goal and blocked the Ducks final field goal attempt to win one of the greatest Civil War games in recent memory, 30-28. Congratulations to the Beavers on earning their first trip to the Sun Bowl in El Paso. The Ducks earned a bowl trip to Las Vegas to play Brigham Young (BYU) in a game we can win. In the battle of Arizona, the Sun Devils earned a bowl berth with a road upset over the Arizona Wildcats, 28-14, snapping the Wildcats three-game win streak and their bowl hopes. Arizona State earned a trip to Honolulu for the Hawaii Bowl against a good Hawaii team. My only Pac-10 win last week was the USC Trojans continuing their march to the BCS Championship game with an easy win over Notre Dame, 44-24. My overall Pac-10 record is now 49-24 for a 67.1 winning percentage. The Trojans only now need to beat their cross-town rival UCLA Bruins to earn a shot at Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl Championship Game. The Bruins don't need to win this game as they have already locked up a spot in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco against Florida State, which should be a pretty good match-up, but they would love to knock their cross-town rival out of the championship game. They're probably getting tired of seeing their rivals college the crystal footballs for a championship. Despite clinching the Sun Bowl, the Beavers have one more game with a trip to Hawaii, but the Warriors are good this season especially at home and will beat the Beavers, see picks below.

In my "other" college picks I went 3-2 as Nebraska, North Carolina (in a wild one over rival Duke, 45-44), and Rutgers came through. I was glad to see Texas lose to Texas A&M, 12-7, but wasn't bold enough to predict it. I went with the Air Force Academy for the second week in a row, and was burned again, in a game they should've won easily over Nevada-Las Vegas (UNLV) with a 10-game losing steak. However, the Rebels came in fired up and determined to end their season with a win and they did, 42-39. Their schedule looks like a sandwich with an opening season win against Idaho State and a season ending win surrounding a 10-game losing streak in between. My overall "other games" record is now 47-8 for an 85.5 winning percentage.

I had a good week in the Holiday NFL weekend going 4-1, including 2-0 on Thanksgiving. It was nice to see Joey Harrington go back to Detroit to play his former team and have a good game helping the Miami Dolphins beat the Lions easily, 27-10, and Dallas won easily over Tampa Bay, 38-10. The Buccaneers hardly look like the team that won the Super Bowl just four season's ago. Minnesota and San Diego were my other wins. Washington's upset of Carolina was my only loss, 17-13. My overall NFL record is now 37-23 for 61.7 winning percentage.

Here are this weeks picks:
College Football
Saturday, December 2, 2006:
Final week of Pac-10 picks:
southern california (usc) by 14 over UCLA
CALIFORNIA by 30 over stanford
HAWAII by 10 over oregon state

other games:
NAVY by 20 over army
LOUISVILLE by 28 over connecticut
TEXAS CHRISTIAN (TCU) by 21 over air force
FLORIDA by 7 over arkansas
WEST VIRGINIA by 14 over rutgers

NFL Sunday, December 3, 2006:
NEW ORLEANS by 10 over san francisco
CHICAGO by 7 over minnesota
ST. LOUIS by 10 over arizona
PITTSBURGH by 7 over tampa bay
indianapolis by 10 over TENNESSEE

With Army and Navy playing their annual game this weekend I need to give a shout out to all those troops out there defending our freedom overseas. My prayers go out to you for your safety and that your missions will succeed as you defeat the insurgents. Your battles are way more important than any played on a football field. We still support you!

Everyone enjoy the Holiday season, this is the best time of year!